Am I over-analyzing this?

Ok, I have decided that counting calories is the best way to go and I am feeling like I am making this FAR MORE complicated than it is.  I keep re-reading how to do this and I am having a hard time figuring out if I am tackling my goal in a reasonable way.

I figured out that my BMR=1650

The calculator tells me I burn 2200 calories a day

I am aiming for an intake of 1200-1400 calories a day

Will I lose weight at a decent rate this way? I am currently 178 and would like to be down to 160 in 7 weeks or so.

Any help with this would be greatly appreciated and I'd love to hear how others have calculated what works for them:-)

Thanks so much!!!

okay--this is what works for me. some might argue with how i calculate, but this has been going well.

i burn 1700 through the normal course of a day. i burn an additional 400 calories through exercise (approximately).  so i burn about 2100 calories every day.  a healthy deficit is 500-700 calories, and i aim for 600-700.  so i generally consume about 1400-1500 calories (or try to).  by making healthy food choices for those 1400-1500 calories, i am able to eat a larger volume of food and i have successfully lost about 15 lbs in 2.5 months. 

your deficit is bordering on too big (generally agreed over 750-800 is unhealthy because hard to maintain and leads to excessive exercise or too little food).  if you do any exercise or increase that 2200 in any way, you should probably step up your calories. 

Easy. =]

A pound of fat is 3,500 calories.

You burn 2,200 calories per day. You're taking in only 1,400 calories. This leaves you with a defecit of 800 calories per day.

800 calorie defecit
Seven days a week you have an 800 calorie defecit so...

800 x 7 = 5,600 calorie defecit a week

A 5,600 calorie defecit is equal to (5,600/3,500)... 1.6 pounds a week.

Thank you for simplifying this and calulating...I swear this stuff can be like trying to read Chinese!!!